Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 0.007846 0.008847 0.009928 0.011185 0.012604 0.014158 0.015992
2026-01-04 0.006322 0.007713 0.009340 0.011385 0.013892 0.016868 0.020676
2026-01-11 0.005502 0.007087 0.009046 0.011649 0.015024 0.019262 0.025006
2026-01-18 0.004788 0.006447 0.008589 0.011566 0.015608 0.020924 0.028475
2026-01-25 0.004268 0.005970 0.008255 0.011556 0.016221 0.022606 0.032057
2026-02-01 0.003794 0.005490 0.007845 0.011369 0.016531 0.023852 0.035095
2026-02-08 0.003477 0.005189 0.007644 0.011435 0.017173 0.025584 0.038947
2026-02-15 0.003165 0.004861 0.007363 0.011341 0.017548 0.026928 0.042305
2026-02-22 0.002981 0.004702 0.007312 0.011579 0.018431 0.029087 0.047085
2026-03-01 0.002679 0.004333 0.006902 0.011213 0.018319 0.029671 0.049378
2026-03-08 0.002448 0.004053 0.006608 0.010998 0.018421 0.030583 0.052260
2026-03-15 0.002228 0.003771 0.006282 0.010700 0.018349 0.031187 0.054649
2026-03-22 0.002150 0.003724 0.006346 0.011069 0.019453 0.033879 0.060938
2026-03-29 0.002048 0.003627 0.006317 0.011275 0.020288 0.036176 0.066740
2026-04-05 0.001965 0.003554 0.006321 0.011536 0.021237 0.038743 0.073251
2026-04-12 0.001836 0.003388 0.006146 0.011453 0.021547 0.040168 0.077733
2026-04-19 0.001729 0.003253 0.006016 0.011443 0.021984 0.041855 0.082854
2026-04-26 0.001608 0.003082 0.005805 0.011258 0.022069 0.042873 0.086733
2026-05-03 0.001529 0.002986 0.005727 0.011323 0.022642 0.044872 0.092754
2026-05-10 0.001438 0.002857 0.005576 0.011230 0.022890 0.046243 0.097589
2026-05-17 0.001392 0.002815 0.005589 0.011467 0.023823 0.049061 0.105711
2026-05-24 0.001283 0.002637 0.005321 0.011104 0.023482 0.049227 0.108136
2026-05-31 0.001199 0.002503 0.005132 0.010891 0.023438 0.050008 0.111962